How well could Andy Burnham do?

On voting intention, Reform UK currently have a lead of 8 points, but when we ask voting intention with Andy Burnham in charge, Labour pull ahead of Reform to lead by 1 point – although that lead is technically within the margin of error.

IMPORTANT CAVEAT: This does not mean that, if Andy Burnham were to become Prime Minister, we can guarantee Labour’s vote share to increase by 8%, Labour to overtake Reform etc. This is a future hypothetical question and us human beings are not great at predicting our own behaviour, particularly in a low information context like a Burnham PM. Very few (perhaps even Burnham himself) know his position, let alone his policies, when it comes to the economy, the NHS, immigration, the cost of living, Brexit etc.

What polls like this demonstrate is the lack of support for Starmer and support for the principle of change.

A plurality of respondents (45%) believe Andy Burnham is doing the right thing in trying to return to Parliament to challenge Starmer. This includes a majority (54%) of Labour voters. More than a third of respondents (35%), however, say they don’t know. Very similar numbers think it would be good for the Labour party, but again 31% say don’t know.

Across all different groups, including Labour voters, Burnham is thought to be the best option for leader. His 33% is well ahead of Streeting on 12% and Starmer and Rayner on 6%, but all are behind the proportion of people who say don’t know (38%).

The high levels of Don’t knows across all these questions demonstrate illustrate just how any of the potential candidates has really managed to cut through at the national level yet. All we can really conclude is that there is a long way to go and massive potential for things to change.

And finally…. A majority of more than three in five (63%) believe that, if Burnham does become PM, he should call a General Election to give himself a mandate. This includes a majority (56%) of Labour voters.

See the full tables here: Andy Burnham | Deltapoll