Net-zero scepticism rising on the right

Britain believes in climate science, but Farage and Badenoch seem to be polarising opinion on Net Zero 2050

Stephen Fisher, 27 March 2025

Last week Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, said, “net zero by 2050 is impossible” and called herself, “a net-zero sceptic.”

After the speech, Deltapoll asked a representative sample of adults in Britain the following question.

“Reducing UK greenhouse-gas emissions to net-zero involves heavily cutting the use of fossil fuels and finding ways of taking any remaining greenhouse-gas emissions out of the atmosphere. Do you approve or disapprove of the law to require the government to reduce UK greenhouse-gas emissions to net-zero by 2050?”

The responses are in Table 1, together with those for each year since the UK became the first major nation to propose the target. With 52% approval, and just 18% disapproval, the British people seem to disagree with Kemi Badenoch. Even among supporters of her own party net approval is +26 points.

Table 1. Approval of the Net-Zero 2050 Law

Source: Deltapoll, June 2019, March 2020, Nov 2021, 13-14 April 2022, 28-31 July 2023, 14-17 June 2024, and 21-24 March 2025.

In truth, Badenoch did not explicitly call for repeal of the Net Zero 2050 law, even though that was the logic of her argument. It may be the public also have doubts about the achievability of net zero by 2050 but they are happy to keep the target to encourage the country, and the world, to reduce climate change.

While there is still majority support for net zero 2050, levels of approval have declined (from 60% to 52%) and disapproval has increased (from 8% to 18%) since 2019.

The rise of net-zero scepticism (in the form of disapproval of the net-zero law) has occurred in two step changes: from 8% in 2022 to 11% in 2023, and from 11% last year to 18% now.

This has not been driven by a rise in climate scepticism. Outright scepticism, thinking that “the planet is not getting warmer” is rare: just 5% expressed that view in 2019 and only 7% do so now. A more substantial number, 23%, think “the planet is getting warmer but this is mostly due to natural forces rather than the actions of humans.” That figure is 1-point lower than what it was in 2019. Instead of rising scepticism, the number who believe “climate change is happening and this is mostly due to actions of humans,” is, at 63%, up from the 61% it was both last year and when first recorded in 2019. While the British public do not fully acknowledge that climate change in human history has been mostly driven by human activity, belief in climate change and climate science has been strong and stable.

The step changes in net-zero scepticism suggest a more political cause.

The first step, from 8% to 11% was between April 2022 and July 2023. Between those dates Britain changed prime minister from net-zero enthusiast Boris Johnson, to the more sceptical Rishi Sunak (via Liz Truss who was even more sceptical). As Chancellor, Sunak warned against going, “too hard and too fast”, and shortly before the 2023 Deltapoll survey Downing Street reportedly said that climate policies were “under review,” while Prime Minister Sunak declared that net-zero policies should be “proportionate and pragmatic”.

The distinct drop between 2022 and 2023 in the Conservative government’s commitment to net-zero appears to have particularly affected Conservative supporters. Among those who voted Conservative at the 2019 general election 12% disapproved of the net-zero 2050 law in 2022, rising to 19% in 2023. That 7-point rise among Conservatives was larger than the corresponding 4-point rise among Labour voters or the 3-point rise for the country as a whole.

The second and much bigger step up in net-zero scepticism also coincided with a change in Conservative party leadership: from Sunak to Badenoch.

Table 2 shows levels of disapproval of the net-zero 2050 law by 2024 general election vote, both last year and now. The third column shows the change. There have been modest increases, around +5 points, in disapproval among Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green voters, but much larger increases for Conservative (+9 points) and Reform voters (+17 points). Net-zero scepticism has risen much more on the right.

Table 2. Disapproval of the Net-Zero 2050 Law by 2024 General Election VoteSource: Deltapoll. 2024 figures are based on vote intentions during the election campaign. Surveys 14-17 June 2024, and 21-24 March 2025

While the rise of net-zero scepticism among 2024 Conservative voters may be due to having a more sceptical leader, there was no such leadership change to explain the even bigger rise in net-zero scepticism among Reform voters.

Since the general election, Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, has vociferously argued, “net zero is deindustrialising Britain” and “the result has been hugely increased energy bills as our taxpayers subsidise loss-making [renewable energy] industries”. Although the rapid rise of Reform before the election was driven by concerns about immigration, Reform voters may now be increasingly aware of, and persuaded by, the party’s views on net zero.

Not only have those who voted Reform last year become more hostile to net-zero 2050, but the new supporters the party has attracted since the election are relatively hostile too. Of those in Deltapoll’s survey who now intend to vote Reform but did not vote for the party at the general election 32% disapprove of the net-zero 2050 law. While not so sceptic as Reform’s 2024 voters, the new Reform recruits are much more net-zero sceptic than the general population.

Meanwhile, Labour’s decline in the polls since the general election has been disproportionately net-zero sceptic. Disapproval for the net-zero law among Labour loyalists is, at 6%, notably lower than the 16% for those who no longer intend to vote for the party. However, that 16% is still below the overall 18% for the population as a whole. The voters drifting from Labour may not be motivated by concerns about net-zero legislation — and the party had few net-zero sceptic voters to start with — but disapproval of net-zero is lower among their current supporters, at 8%, than the 10% among those who voted for Labour last year.

Faster rising net-zero scepticism on the right is a form of polarisation on its own. The disproportionate switching of net-zero sceptics away from Labour and to Reform since the election only enhances that polarisation.

Levels of net-zero scepticism now differ substantially between supporters of different parties: from 8% for Labour, to 22% for the Conservatives, and to 40% for Reform.

So far net-zero scepticism and polarisation in Britain is at relatively modest levels, but it could widen as a result of rhetoric from political leaders. The polarisation of Republicans and Democrats in the US over climate change took off during the period of partisan debate over the Kyoto Agreement in 1997, and then widened to become one of the most divisive issues in US politics. Now the US under Trump is again withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement.

Although Britain has had a consistent consensus for climate action, Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch seem to be polarising net zero and pushing Britain in a similar direction to the US.

Stephen Fisher is Professor of Political Sociology at the University of Oxford.